Australian Open – Mouratoglou: Are Nadal's changes enough?

Novak
Djokovic^[1] has
dominated Rafael
Nadal^[2] in recent
times, but the Spanish great has tweaked his game in a clear
strategy to get the better of his Serbian rival.

Another Grand Slam final, another Djokovic-Nadal clash - last
year this duo did battle in six important finals with the Serb
winning all of them, but can the Spaniard snap his losing
streak?

In this blog I will look at how important this match is to
Nadal, the elements of his game that Djokovic has been
exploiting, and how Rafa has worked on these aspects at the
Australian
Open^[3] with this
final in mind.

Last-chance saloon for Rafa?

The Majorcan is not used to failure. But he has lost six big
finals in a row to Nole, who last season was pretty much
unstoppable.

This final is of tremendous importance for Nadal. His path is
constantly troubled by Nole and it's frustrating for him. I'm
convinced that if this pattern continues Rafa could lose what
has made him so strong throughout his career: his unwavering
belief, desire, determination and passion.

Given how much effort he has put into getting past the final
hurdle, these repeated blows could well traumatise Nadal. This
problem needs to be solved quickly, so Nadal can prove to
himself that he can stay the master of the game.

Why has Nadal failed?

There are several reasons why Rafael is struggling against
Novak. Here are the main ones:

Nadal's serve, especially his second serve, lacks depth and
power; Djokovic, meanwhile, boasts the best returning stats on
second serve. Throughout 2011, Nole won the most points on his
opponents' second serve. Against Rafa, he's "having fun" when
he takes these chances, and always starts these points as the
offensive player. The Spaniard, when challenged like this,
plays short and gets punished.

Nadal's general depth of shots is also to blame for his losses
against Djokovic. While most players don't take advantage when
Nadal shortens his shots, the Serb is outstanding in the way he
steps inside the court to take the ball early - taking time off
Nadal who, when attacked, plays even shorter.

When Rafa is the attacking one, he doesn't generate enough
power to hurt Nole. The Serb is one of the best retrievers in
the world and can to go from defence to offence on any ball
that doesn't have enough power. This happens a lot in their
battles.

What is at stake in this final?

The Serb certainly has the mental edge. Six finals played
against the Majorcan, six victories. The numbers tell it all.
Furthermore, Nole nearly saw himself lose against Andy
Murray^[4], like in
the last US Open semi-final against Federer. Rather than
fatiguing him, Nole will now feel even more invincible.

Rafa broke down mentally for the first time in his life in a
Masters 1000 final against the Serb. He acknowledged it. But I
feel he has bounced back since January and regained his
legendary fighting spirit. He's ready, now more than ever.

Physically, both players have huge qualities. They both spent a
lot of time on court in their semi-final. Even when Nadal has
had an extra day off, Novak has previously shown himself to be
fresher in their fights.

I have to give a little advantage to the Serb because of this.
But Rafa has searched for solutions in two areas that have been
troubling his game.

What has Nadal changed with Djokovic in mind?

Nadal has kept 70% of his first serves in play throughout this
Australian Open - this shows he is dealing with his
aforementioned second-serve problem by seeking to minimise the
need to use it; previously he was at 57% of first serves in
during his matches against Novak, a stat the Serb exploited
ruthlessly last season. By reducing the need to use his second
serve Nadal is protecting himself from Nole's attacks on it:
Rafa has been preparing for this match against Djokovic. The
only issue is that Rafa's best serve - the slice he often uses
on deuce and advantage - plays directly to Nole's best shot:
his backhand.

Regarding his shot efficiency, Nadal has added some weight on
his racquet in order to change his swing weight (from 308 to
314): this means he can get more power and more length on his
shots, reducing the shortening and power problem I talked
about. He wants to make the Serb move backwards and to be more
decisive on attacking balls so he can't turn defence into
offence so easily.

Finally, game-plan wise, Rafa has to stop avoiding the diagonal
with his backhand on to Nole's forehand. Indeed, it's when he
changes to the diagonal shot that he gets punished by the
Serbian. He has to make Novak go backwards, forcing him to use
his forehand to dictate the game. Will he do it? I'm not sure
as he has not had to so far, but I think so.

Personally, I'm convinced Djokovic will play a great match,
like he always does against Nadal.

But this time Rafa has a new plan, one he has executed
throughout this tournament, and I think he is readier than
ever.

Patrick Mouratoglou /
Eurosport

References

1. ^{^} Novak Djokovic
   (uk.eurosport.yahoo.com)
2. ^{^} Rafael Nadal
   (uk.eurosport.yahoo.com)
3. ^{^} Australian Open
   (uk.eurosport.yahoo.com)
4. ^{^} Andy Murray
   (uk.eurosport.yahoo.com)