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A Diet for Lead Poisoning? It Probably Doesn’t Work – New York Times
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New York Times | A Diet for Lead Poisoning? It Probably Doesn't Work New York Times The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends a diet high in calcium, iron and vitamin C as a way of lowering children's blood lead levels, but a review of studies has found little evidence that it works. The C.D.C. recommends that children ... |
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A Diet for Lead Poisoning? It Probably Doesn't Work - New York Times
Diet secrets from the world’s healthiest countries – New York Post
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Want to live a long, healthy life? Move to South Korea.
In a study from Imperial College London, published in the journal the Lancet in late February, researchers projected the life expectancy for men and women born in 35 industrialized countries in the year 2030. The study authors used 21 different forecasting models to analyze death rates across various age groups over the past 50-plus years, resulting in predictions that they believe are the most accurate statistics available.
The good news: The study predicts life expectancy will increase in all 35 countries. South Korea is expected to take the top spot for both women and men, with projected life expectancies of 90.8 and 84, respectively.
The bad news: The USA came in dead last in its cohort, with the lowest predicted life expectancy out of all high-income industrialized countries an average of 83.3 years for women, and 79.5 years for men.
Although the study doesnt dig deep into why citizens of certain countries can expect longer life spans than others, co-author James Bennett tells The Post that high-ranking countries do have some commonalities, such as access to health care, low smoking rates and healthy diets.
Below, the life-extending staples that keep these top countries ticking.
Bennett cites Koreas traditional diet as one reason why its citizens are expected to live so long.
Thats thanks in part to kimchee, a popular Korean condiment thats served with most meals. The fermented vegetable mix is packed with gut-healthy probiotics which can help your body fight off disease as well as filling fiber and antioxidants.
Other South Korean staples include bibimbap, a popular dish of rice, vegetables, red pepper paste, egg and a small amount of meat.
It goes down so easily, and its full of healthy foods, says nutritionist Joshua Rosenthal, founder of NYCs Institute for Integrative Nutrition.
Plus, says Bennett, South Koreas recent economic growth has made health care more accessible across the whole population, leading to huge gains in its life expectancy standing.
France isnt exactly known as a health-food mecca the country is synonymous with baguettes, croissants and healthy pats of butter. Still, its citizens tend to live long lives, with a projected life expectancy of 88.6 years for women and 81.7 for men for those born in 2030.
Whats fascinating is that many of the foods that Americans avoid, like foods that are high in carbs or saturated fat, are things you see in a French diet, says Danielle Rehfeld, a personal chef who specializes in global cuisine.
But the French generally consume foods differently than Americans, opting for smaller portion sizes eaten at mealtimes, rather than snacks or binges.
It also helps that they tend to see meals as social events.
Its not just what youre eating, its how youre eating, says nutritionist Rosenthal. If youre eating while youre watching TV, you dont realize how much food you ate youre unconscious.
And staying connected with friends and family has been shown to aid in healthy aging as does the easy access to health care and social services that the French enjoy.
Japan currently boasts the longest life expectancies at birth 87 for women, and 80 for men according to the World Health Organization. By 2030, the new study projects those numbers to rise to 88.4 for females and 82.8 for males. Thats thanks in large part to a healthy traditional diet centered around small portions of plant-based, nutrient-rich food.
No one is crazier about the freshness of fish than the Japanese.
Many Japanese meals start with miso soup, made from probiotic-rich miso paste and topped with seaweed, which contains high amounts of vitamins and minerals such as iodine and calcium.
Other diet staples include rice, vegetables and small amounts of fresh, omega-3-packed, heart- and brain-healthy fish.
No one is crazier about the freshness of fish than the Japanese, says Rosenthal.
And green tea, consumed throughout Japan, is rich in antioxidants and EGCG, a polyphenol that may help prevent against certain cancers.
Australians are proof that its not only what you eat its about your lifestyle, says Rosenthal. Australian men born in 2030 have a projected expectancy of 84 years, women 87.6.
Australia has an obesity problem that rivals our own, but its residents tend to be more active and spend more time outdoors than Americans.
And while fast food has taken hold in most cities, fresh fruits and vegetables are easily accessible Down Under as is Vegemite, a salty yeast spread typically eaten on toast. The umami-rich condiment has some of the highest amount of B vitamins found in any food. Its an acquired taste, but that high vitamin and mineral count is very important for energy and building strong hair, skin, nails and eyes, says NYC-based dietitian Amy Shapiro.
Australians are also doing quite well with reducing their smoking, says Bennett an important step in preventing early death.
Starchy pastries and chocolate abound in Switzerland, where the projected life span for 2030 is 84 years for men and 87.7 for women. But such treats are balanced out by one of the healthiest foods around: yogurt.
Its a really big thing over there, says Rosenthal of the dairy product thats eaten on muesli, in desserts, and as a meal on its own. Yogurt is full of probiotics, which can aid in digestion and provide an immune system boost, as well as healthy protein.
And the Swiss typically reach for full-fat, no-sugar-added varieties, which can be more filling and easier for the body to digest.
But Rosenthal says its not just the Swiss food that matters its the fresh Alps atmosphere.
The quality of the air youre breathing makes an enormous difference, he says.
Bennett says Americas poor performance is not really a shock the countrys weight problem, along with economic inequality and a lack of universal health care, drags the average life expectancy down significantly. Theres also the high homicide rate, high death rates for mothers and children and growing stress levels to consider.
Kimchee and yogurt may be appearing on more American plates than ever, but thats not likely to move the needle by 2030.
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Diet secrets from the world's healthiest countries - New York Post
You can now get Tom Brady’s no dairy, no meat, no fun diet delivered to your door – For The Win
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You can already sleep like Tom Brady (provided you have about $5,000 handy for a new mattress) and now you can finally eat like Tom Brady, though why anyone would want to is a total mystery.
ESPN reported that the Patriots QB, known for his, shall we say, disciplined diet, has signed an endorsement deal with a New England based food-delivery service calledPurple Carrot.
On Tuesday, Purple Carrot unveiled the TB12 line of pre-packaged meals that will follow Bradys insanely strict diet.
Per Bradys stipulations, they will be higher-protein, gluten-free and limited in soy and refined sugar. None of the meals will contain recipes with dairy, eggs, seafood, meat or processed foods.
Now, that doesnt sound too bad, until you remember that Brady alsodoesnt eat nightshades like tomatoes, peppers, mushrooms, or eggplants. And if you say you knew what a nightshade was before Brady talked about them youre a dirty, dirty liar.
According to ESPN, sample meals include a ramen bowl with charred broccolini and gingered amaranth, and crispy turnip cakes with quinoa tabbouleh and zaatar yogurt.
Kudos to anyone who knew whatamaranth was without having to look it up, because I did not.
You can get six meals a week for about $78, which seems far more reasonable than $200 for a pair of his recovery pajamas.
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You can now get Tom Brady's no dairy, no meat, no fun diet delivered to your door - For The Win
How Poor Diet Raises Your Risk of Dying from Heart Disease – Healthline
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After years of public health messages promoting healthy eating, most people now know that a poor diet can increase their risk of heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes.
But how much of an effect does diet have on your risk of dying from one of these diseases?
A lot a new study suggests.
We combed through studies and data to look at the cumulative effects of poor diet on what we call cardiometabolic diseases heart disease, stroke, and diabetes and determined that nearly half of all deaths are linked to poor diet, Renata Micha, RD, PhD, study author, and research assistant professor at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University, told Healthline.
In addition, another group of researchers says that fewer overweight and obese people are trying to lose weight, another factor leading to increased risk for heart disease.
Read more: Risk factors for heart disease
Researchers in the diet study used risk assessment models and national data on dietary habits to determine how many of the more than 700,000 deaths in 2012 from heart disease, stroke, or type 2 diabetes were due to poor diet.
They estimated that 45 percent of the deaths were associated with 10 dietary factors.
Top on the list was excess intake of sodium, which researchers estimated accounted for almost 10 percent of the deaths.
But its not just about eating too many foods that are bad for our health.
Americans are overconsuming salt, processed meats, and sugary-sweetened beverages, said Micha. We are underconsuming fruits, vegetables, nuts and seeds, whole grains, vegetable oils, or fish.
Vegetable oils like those found in soybeans, sunflower seeds, and walnuts are high in polyunsaturated fats, which are known to reduce harmful cholesterol levels.
Fatty fish like salmon, mackerel, herring, and sardines are high in heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acids. Non-fish sources of omega-3s are also available like flaxseeds, chia seeds, and microalgae but were not looked at in this study.
In the study, diet accounted for a greater fraction of deaths among African-Americans and Hispanics compared with whites, as well as among adults with low levels of education compared to those with high levels of education.
Researchers also estimated a stronger effect of diet on risk of death in men, which they write is primarily because of generally unhealthier dietary habits.
Its a wake-up call and another opportunity, said Micha. We need to be reminded of this simple truth: eating healthy can and will prevent people from dying prematurely from heart disease, stroke, and diabetes.
The study was published Mar. 7 in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
Read more: Risk factors for type 2 diabetes
In a related commentary in JAMA, Noel Mueller, PhD, MPH, and Dr. Lawrence Appel, MPH, caution that the results of the study are from observational research rather than stronger long-term randomized trials, which are difficult to do in nutritional research.
So there is potential that other factors not included in the study may influence the risk of dying. This could include non-dietary factors like income and physical activity levels, or a persons overall dietary pattern.
It is possible that processed meat consumption merely reflects a Westernized dietary pattern, write Mueller and Appel.
They also question whether these 10 dietary factors are the best ones to monitor.
Saturated fat didnt make the studys list, but randomized trials conducted decades ago demonstrated that replacement of saturated fat with polyunsaturated vegetable oil reduced cardiovascular disease events by 18 percent to 41 percent, write Mueller and Appel.
Saturated fats come mainly from meat and dairy.
In spite of those concerns, Mueller and Appel write that the likely benefits [of an improved diet] are substantial and justify policies designed to improve diet quality.
The new study identified a reduction in sodium intake as a prime target for public health policy, something that is already under way.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has recently announced voluntary sodium reduction targets for the food industry, said Micha. This is quite timely and we need to engage industry to gradually reduce salt content in processed foods.
She also points to taxes on sugary beverages passed by U.S. municipalities in recent years as a sign of progress.
In addition, she highlighted promising initiatives like programs in the workplace and schools to promote healthier eating, and improvements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for people in the United States with low or no income.
But even without the governments help, people can take charge of their own health even if it is one small change at a time.
Eat more of the good and less of the bad, said Micha. Start by making one healthier choice each day and build on it.
Read more: Eating too much salt causes 1.6 million deaths per year
Another risk factor for heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes not addressed by the new study is being overweight or obese.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than two-thirds of American adults are overweight or obese. And one-fifth of adolescents are obese.
But as overweight and obesity have increased in the United States, fewer people are trying to lose weight, report the authors of a research letter published in the same issue of JAMA.
Researchers used the responses of more than 27,000 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to determine shifts in weight loss over the past few decades.
Overweight and obesity among adults increased during that time from 53 percent during the period from 1988 to 1994, to 66 percent during the period from 2009 to 2014.
During the same period, the percentage of overweight or obese adults trying to lose weight declined from 56 percent in 1988 to 1994 to 49 percent in 2009 to 2014.
Study author Dr. Jian Zhang, DrPH, an epidemiologist at Georgia Southern University, and colleagues, write that this may be due to body weight misperception reducing motivation to engage in weight loss efforts or primary care clinicians not discussing weight issues with patients.
Read more: Its our culture, not an obesity gene, that makes people fat, expert says
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How Poor Diet Raises Your Risk of Dying from Heart Disease - Healthline
Mediterranean diet linked to lower risk of breast cancer type, study says – CNN
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Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
The Mediterranean diet is easy to find in the grocery store, contains nutrients that are known to enhance longevity and has other health benefits that are backed by peer-reviewed, scientific studies. Broccoli makes the list because it's one of nature's most nutrient-dense foods, with only 30 calories per cup. That means you get a ton of hunger-curbing fiber and polyphenols -- antioxidants that detoxify cell-damaging chemicals in your body -- with each serving.
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Doctors suggest using olive oil rather than butter to make your meals. A Spanish study found a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil reduced the incidence of major cardiovascular events among patients with a history of heart disease.
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Quinoa is the popular whole-grain du jour because it also contains a good dose of protein to help build muscle. Yet including any type of whole grain in your diet -- from barley to brown rice -- will aid in weight loss by filling you up for fewer calories.
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Many dieters shy away from nuts because of their high calorie and fat count. But studies show that eating a handful several times a week can prevent heart disease and ultimately help you shed pounds since they fill you up and stop you from snacking on other things. Almonds, in particular, contain lots of monounsaturated fats and fiber. (Healthy swap: Replace peanut butter with almond butter.)
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Salmon is also a good source of lean protein. With this diet, doctors suggest eating fish at least two times a week. Salmon provides a high dose of omega-3 fatty acids, which studies show significantly lower the risk of heart disease. Omega-3 fatty acids fight back by reducing inflammation and slowing the rate of plaque buildup in blood vessels.
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Beans, beans, the magical fruit; the more you eat, the more ... you lose weight. Black, kidney, white and garbanzo beans (also known as chickpeas) are good for fiber and protein. They fill you up and provide muscle-building material without any of the fat that meat can add to your meal.
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Walnuts are packed with tryptophan, an amino acid your body needs to create the feel-great chemical serotonin. (In fact, Spanish researchers found that walnut eaters have higher levels of this natural mood-regulator.) Another perk: "They're digested slowly," said Dr. David Katz, director of the Yale Prevention Research Center. "This contributes to mood stability and can help you tolerate stress."
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
Asparagus is one of the best veggie sources of folate, a B vitamin that could help keep you out of a mental slump. "Folate is important for the synthesis of the neurotransmitters dopamine, serotonin and norepinephrine," said David Mischoulon, associate professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. All of these are crucial for mood.
Delicious Mediterranean diet foods
It's not a requirement to drink it on this diet, but if you do drink alcohol, red wine in moderate amounts can be good for your health. Moderation means one drink for women and two for men, by the way. Studies show red wine can help protect against heart disease.
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Mediterranean diet linked to lower risk of breast cancer type, study says - CNN
Feed your brain with these 5 food groups – Fox News
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Honeybrains, a new restaurant in New York City, is giving a whole new meaning to brain food. The fast-casual eatery offers only nutrient-packed meals, specifically made to boost your brain health.
Its co-owned by neurologist Dr. Alon Seifan, whose private practice in Hollywood, Florida, specializes in aging and dementia. There are three things that food does to improve our body and brain health, Seifan said.
One, good food can improve metabolism, number two, good food can improve our circulation, and number three, good food can improve the balance of nutrients and inflammation in our body, Dr. Alon Seifan told Fox News.
5 TRENDY HEALTH FOODS THAT AREN'T WORTH YOUR MONEY
Seifan, along with his siblings, and business partner Christophe Jadot, set out to open a health-conscious restaurant that took principles from eating methods found in the Blue Zones around the world, like the Mediterranean diet. People in Blue Zones tend to live longer and healthier lives than the average person.
A recent study published inthe journal Neurology found that older adults who closely followed a Mediterranean-like diet were less likely to lose brain volume as they aged, compared with those who didn't follow the diet.
They all have the same thing in common. It's five food groups its the fruits, vegetables, legumes, whole grains and healthy fats, Seifan said. So we have an entire menu based on those five food groups, any combination of those is both delicious and good for us.
7 WRINKLE-FIGHTING FOODS PROBABLY ALREADY IN YOUR KITCHEN
Chef Kevin Chun, Honeybrains executive chef and chief culinary officer, created a menu that garnishes those five food groups with herbs, spices, fermented foods and natural sweeteners from nature.
"Our main spice blend incorporates a couple of different paprikas, garlic, cumin, coriander seeds, a lot of spices that you might find in Mediterranean flavors, Chun told Fox News.
Youll also find dishes full of super foods like nuts, avocados, leafy greens. and of course honey, which is full of antioxidants.
"Antioxidants improve our circulation, and they improve the stability of the cell membranes in our eyes andour brain," Seifan said.
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The restaurant doesnt just aim to feed the hungry. When designing Honeybrains, Seifan wanted to provide a complete brain wellness experience for his customers that would help educate them on how food can help fight epidemic's like Alzheimers. According to the Alzheimers Association, an estimated 5.4 million Americans of all ages had Alzheimers disease in 2016.
On Thursdays, Honeybrains hosts Thursday Night Talks, a moderated session where experts share information on a variety of health topics. You can also catch Chef Chung at one of their monthly cooking classes to learn how to prepare brain-healthy meals, like their best-selling Avocado Crush Toast.
Avocado Crush Toast
-Slice and toast a thick piece of seeded sourdough bread.
-Smash a half an avocado into a small mixing bowl and add lemon juice, salt and pepper.
- Spread avocado mixture onto toast.
-Sprinkle a mix of Chi seed and Hemp seed salt on top.
-Finish by drizzling extra virgin olive oil over the toast.
-Garnish with a fresh herbs; basil, chives and parsley.
For more, visit Honeybrains.com.
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Feed your brain with these 5 food groups - Fox News
Everything You Want to Know About the Diet Adele’s Trainer Uses with All of His Clients – PEOPLE.com
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Ever since Adele came out with her Grammy Award-winning 25, shes been on a major health kick. The singer says she ditched cigarettes and now works out regularly with her trainer, who puts all of his clients (which, in addition to Adele, include Pippa Middleton and Kim Cattrall) on The Sirtfood Diet.
The diet book, which launches in the U.S. March 7, focuses on Sirtfoods a newly discovered group of wonderfoods that are in common, everyday items like kale, cocoa, strawberries, coffee and more.
FROM COINAGE: Try This Healthy, Cheap Late-Night Snack
Sirtfoods are a newly discovered group of wonder foods that contain special plant nutrients known as polyphenols that activate a powerful recycling process in the body which clears out cellular waste and burns fat, the programs creators, Aidan Goggins and Glen Matten, explain. They do this by activating our sirtuin genes also known as our skinny genes. Indeed, these are the very same genes that are activated by fasting and exercise.
Goggins and Matten searched for foods with the highest levels of polyphenols to formulate a diet plan that Adeles trainer, Pete Geracimo, says isnt really a diet.
Whenever I talk nutrition with my clients, if theyre trying to lose weight, I always tell them to look at these Sirtfoods, he told PEOPLE. You lose weight without losing muscle. It takes it to the next level.
The program is split into two phases that each last seven days. Dieters start phase one by replacing breakfast and lunch with three green juices, with meals like Asian shrimp stir-fry with buckwheat noodles or miso and sesame-glazed tofu with ginger and chili stir-fried greens for dinner. By day four, users are up to two full meals a day, and by phase two, their eating Sirtfood-rich meals at regular intervals.
RELATED VIDEO:Adeles Workout Mean Mug is Giving us #WorkoutGoals!
Goggins and Matten found in trials that dieters lost an average of 7 lbs. in seven days and one PEOPLE reporter is going to put that challenge to the test over the next week. Stay tuned!
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Everything You Want to Know About the Diet Adele's Trainer Uses with All of His Clients - PEOPLE.com
Americans less eager to slim down even as poor diet claims more lives – RT
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Obesity is becoming more socially accepted in America, even as poor diet has been established as culprit of almost half the deaths from heart disease, two new studies show.
Fewer overweight Americans have attempted to lose weight in recent years, according to researchers at Georgia Southern University,who have published a new study in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
The study's lead author, Dr. Jian Zhang, said obesity is increasingly normalized or tolerated, therefore dissuading some from attempting to lose excess pounds.
"Socially accepted normal body weight is shifting toward heavier weight," Zhang said, according to AP. "As more people around us are getting heavier, we simply believe we are fine, and no need to do anything with it."
Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Zhang's research analyzed weight-loss trends between 1988 and 2014. The survey includes physical examinations and interviews with participants, including questions about weight loss in the past year. The study involved more than 27,000 adults between the ages of 20 and 59.
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Participants in the national survey were found to be increasingly overweight or obese, rising to 65 percent in 2014 from about half in 1988. The percentage of those overweight or obese individuals who reported that were trying to lose weight fell from 55 percent to 49 percent over the course of that time.
While fat acceptance can help people's confidence, it can harm their health, Zhang pointed out, calling his findings "a very serious concern."
Just more than 45 percent of cardiometabolic deaths or those related to heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes in 2012 could be blamed on "excess sodium intake, insufficient intake of nuts/seeds, high intake of processed meats, and low intake of seafood omega-3 fats,"according to another study published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
In 2012, more than 700,000 Americans died from a cardiometabolic disease; of those, almost 320,000 could be linked to poor diet, said researchers at Tufts University led by Dr. Renata Micha.
Micha's team found about an equal balance between diet-linked deaths that were due to a lack of healthy foods, such as fruits and vegetables, and deaths related to overeating generally unhealthy foods, such as processed meat, unprocessed red meat, sugary beverages and salt.
The largest number of deaths (66,500) in the total sample of more than 700,000 were associated with over-consumption of sodium. Not eating enough nuts and seeds was linked to 59,000 deaths, too much red meat was related to 58,000 deaths, too few omega-3 fats from seafood was associated with 55,000 deaths and too few vegetables was linked to 53,000 deaths, among other causes of mortality examined in the study.
Researchers found that men, younger people and people of color were more likely to die based on dietary factors as opposed to their female, older, or non-Hispanic white counterparts.
A recent study reported that black and Latino children are about 50 percent more likely to be exposed to junk food advertising than their white counterparts.
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Americans less eager to slim down even as poor diet claims more lives - RT
Planet Fitness: Extremely Leveraged And Low Growth Outlook – Seeking Alpha
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Planet Fitness, Inc.'s (NYSE:PLNT) financial statements are as misleading as their ads and you need to read the fine print. Their ads say no commitment, but Black Card membership does require an annual commitment or you have to pay a $59 contract termination fee. PLNT's "earnings" are just as misleading. Are earnings per share $0.69 using their Non-GAAP approach or $0.50 using GAAP? Leverage has increased significantly and there is a very real possibility they could have a technical default on a bank loan covenant in 2020. Not only has their financial position significantly worsened since my article last summer, but insiders have been massive sellers of the stock. Their recent 10-K had some unfavorable data.
Financial Position Is Getting Worse
Bank debt increased $230 million in 2016 to a staggering $716.7 million after increasing $120 million in 2015. This compares to a negative shareholder equity of $215 million. A year ago, shareholder equity was "only" a negative $1 million. If you subtract out intangible assets ($254 million) and goodwill ($177 million), shareholder equity is a negative $646 million. (This gives an entirely new meaning to "financial leverage"!)
If interest rates rise sharply with the Federal Reserve raising rates, could this bank loan of LIBOR plus 350 become a future issue? The higher rates could also impact franchisees trying to finance new stores.
Why is the balance sheet much worse from the prior year? The special dividend of $2.78 per share ($271 million). In my opinion, it was purely a gimmick to pay TSG, the equity fund, additional cash at the expense of the future viability of PLNT.
Besides the bank debt, there is also a $419 million tax benefit arrangement liability payable to TSG and $106.7 million in leases. (I discussed the details of this tax benefit payment in my August article.) Collectively this makes their balance sheet extremely leveraged.
There is a very real possibility PLNT could have a technical default on their bank loan in the future. Currently, they are easily within the bank loan leverage ratio financial covenant of 6.5 to 1.0 of total debt to adjusted EBITDA (adjusted based on strict definitions in the agreement) at 4.3 to 1.0 in 2016. This covenant becomes much more restrictive and in 2020 it is 4.25 to 1.0. Some combination of higher adjusted EBITDA or lower debt in the future will be needed to avoid default and a need for a waiver because currently they would be extremely close to violating this covenant. While many investors are assuming growth, it does put pressure on the company. (A future default does not worry TSG because by then they will have most likely sold their entire PLNT holding.)
Low Growth Versus High P/E
Using 2016 GAAP earnings and the latest price of $21 per share, the P/E is 42x. That is a very high P/E, especially with such a weak balance sheet. Their growth in equipment sales and corporate-owned stores would not justify a high P/E. Most of their growth has come from franchise revenue. Equipment sales, which accounted for 41.5% of 2016 total revenue, was up only 3.3% in the 4th quarter and corporate-owned store revenue, which accounted for 27.7% of revenue in 2016, was up 5.1% in 4th quarter. Franchise revenue in the 4th quarter was up, however, an impressive 32.1%.
According to CEO Chris Rondeau, "...above 90% of our openings will be by the existing franchisees adding to their portfolio." He further stated, "We have a little bit of new blood here and there, but not a lot." Does that mean that once the number of stores is reached under existing area development agreements (ADAs), new store openings will plunge? According to the company, 1,000 new stores are to open over the next 5 years under the ADAs. I question if all these will actually be built because there could be a cannibalization issue of having a saturation of too many stores within an area and it may not be profitable to open another store. Already only 189 net new stores were opened in 2016 compared to 206 net new stores in 2015.
The company even lowered their advertising expenditures, net of amount reimbursed by franchisees, in 2016 to $8.270 million from $9.349 million the prior year. While this boosts 2016 income, lower advertising could have a negative impact on future results.
Management's outlook for 2017 adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $0.72-0.75 (4.3-8.7% growth) compared to 2016 adjusted figure of $0.69. Total 2017 revenue was forecasted to be $405 million-415 million (7.1-9.8% growth) compared to $378 million in 2016. This implies shrinking profit margins, since revenue is expected to increase at higher rate than profit. This outlook of only very modest growth does warrant a high multiple for PLNT.
Equipment Sales
A major yellow flag reported in their balance sheet was the sharp decrease in equipment deposits to $2.17 million from $5.59 million Y/E 2015. It is also a drop from $3.99 million at the end of the 3rd quarter. Does that drop indicate weak 1st quarter equipment sales?
The franchise agreement requires the replacement of PF equipment 4-7 years, which on the surface would assure strong equipment sales growth over time. There are, however, a number of problems with this rosy expectation. First, a franchisee under the new agreement of 5% franchise fee versus the old agreement of a set $500/month may not have the capital to pay for the replaced equipment. (The franchise payment fees were changed in 2010.)
Assuming 6,500 members (55% Black Card and 45% regular membership) and four years of paying this 5% franchise fee on just monthly fees, a gym would pay $241,800 total in fees. This compares to only $24,000 in franchise fees for four years under the $500/month. This $217,800 difference could have a huge impact on a franchisee being able to have the capital to pay for the required replaced equipment. Those under the old agreement may have had an easier time affording replacement compared to how affordable the replacement will be in the future for those under the new fee agreement.
Second, not all equipment has the same ware/tear over time. There are major differences how often certain equipment is used or the amount of negative impact on the equipment per use. If franchisees are squeezed for cash they may assert that not all equipment needs replacement and push hard (litigate) against the company to modify this requirement.
Massive Insider Selling
Since my August article, TSG had two stock offerings of their holdings. On September 28, they sold 8 million shares@$19.62 and on November 22, they sold 15 million shares@$23.22.
CEO Chris Rondeau continues to exercise options and to sell stock. So far this year he has sold 146K shares. This begs the question: If he is so upbeat about PLNT why is he selling a lot?
Conclusion
In my March 2016 article, I covered PLNT's business model and the fitness industry. My August article covered their complex financial structure and included information about the tax benefit liability with TSG. This article was to alert PLNT investors to possible lower future growth and raise the issue about a potential future technical default on their bank debt.
I often write about bankrupt companies and there are almost always yellow flags prior to bankruptcy/restructuring that should have alerted investors to the direction the company was headed. Previously, I just thought that PLNT was just overpriced, but now I think that there is a potential for some type of restructuring within a few years.
With a lower growth outlook and a potential for a future technical default, I rate PLNT a strong sell. For investors willing to assume risk, I rate PLNT a short sell.
Disclosure: I am/we are short PLNT.
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Fitness is life for sibling gym owners in Dallas – Daily Commercial
Fitness Comments Off on Fitness is life for sibling gym owners in Dallas – Daily Commercial
By Leslie Barker / Tribune News Service
Brian Casad, 32, and his kid sister Kelli, 30, of Dallas grew up participating in sports. Then came college. Kelli gained close to 80 pounds; Brians football, wrestling and weightlifting went by the wayside, as did any semblance of healthy eating.
Kelli: Once I graduated from college, I started exercising excessively and starving myself. Being that I was an extremely picky eater, eating healthy was out of the question. I tried fat burners, diet pills and skipped meals. The weight came off and fast. The problem was, I couldnt maintain the weight loss over a long period of time. I yo-yoed.
Brian: Three or four years after college, I found I hated my career path [real estate tax consulting] and chose to channel my frustrations through igniting my passion for fitness again, and by transitioning into a healthier lifestyle. Five years ago, I quit my job and bought into a gym franchise [Title Boxing Club].
Business expanded and he added another gym, Paradigm.
Kelli, meanwhile, had upped her protein and vegetable intake, reduced carbohydrates and limited her sugar and alcohol consumption. She began lifting weights and including boxing and kickboxing into her workout.
In 2012, Brian asked her to be assistant manager at his gym; in 2013, to be a partner.
This is a family business over all, Brian says. Our brother and parents have some ownership as well.
KELLI CASAD
Typical week of workouts: I work out five to six days a week, which varies on how my body feels. Usually, Ill do two to three days of boxing/kickboxing, and two to three days of lifting weights.
Proudest fitness moment: Getting my body fat percentage to 16 and finding the courage to post a transformation photo on my social media.
What gets in the way of my routine? I try to prioritize my workouts, so the only time I allow my routine to slip is when my body needs rest due to injury or illness.
Three things youll always find in my refrigerator: Chicken, salmon, asparagus
Favorite healthy food: Brussels sprouts
Favorite indulgence: Anything Reeses
What Id tell someone who wants to follow my routine: Pay attention to how your body feels. You dont have to follow a set schedule. You dont always have to have a whole hour to dedicate to a workout. Getting in 20 to 30 minutes is better than not working out at all.
BRIAN CASAD
Typical week of workouts: It varies. Heres a sample of two days:
Day 1: Goal 400 Reps. Bench 225 pounds (100 times); squat 225 pounds (100 times); dead lift 225 pounds (100 times); hang clean 225 pounds (100 times)
Day two: Hill run seven miles.
Proudest fitness moment: Being on the cover of Muscle and Fitness magazine in 11 different countries.
Fitness goals: To convince people that fitness is life
What gets in the way of my routine: Procrastination and motivation
Three things youll always find in my refrigerator: Beer, eggs, some sort of vegetable
Favorite healthy food: Lean steak
Favorite indulgence: Chocolate
What Id tell someone who wants to follow my routine: I dont have a routine. I just live. Consistency is the key. Be active; be conscious of what you are eating. Stress is a killer. The scale just produces a number.
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Fitness is life for sibling gym owners in Dallas - Daily Commercial